Where We Are in the AI Supercycle

Molly asks about the cycle; Patrick outlines infra vs. application opportunities and why apps hold most greenfield potential.

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Astasia Myers (Felicis), Tony Wang (500 Global), & Patrick Salyer (Mayfield) joined Sourcery’s Molly O’Shea at the Startup Grind AI Summit, presented with Mayfield & Snowflake, for a conversation on what it really takes to raise from Seed to Series A in AI.

Together they unpack the realities of fundraising in AI today—from what traction truly looks like, to defensibility and integration moats, to shifting stage definitions and round compression. The panel digs into:

Why AI voice and agents are opening massive new TAMs
How founders should navigate inflated growth expectations & conversion rates below 20%
Red flags investors watch for in ARR, pilots, and “vibe revenue”
How AI is reshaping business models, talent, and even the venture model itself
The premium (and pitfalls) in AI valuations

This panel goes beyond the hype to share what top VCs are really looking for when backing the next generation of AI companies.

Funding data provided by Carta.

5 Key Takeaways

Traction Isn’t Just Revenue – For AI startups, traction is measured by engaged usage, speed of iteration, and evidence of repeatability, not just top-line growth.
Defensibility Is Everything – Proprietary data, strong technical teams, and hard-to-replicate integrations are the biggest signals for Series A readiness.
GTM Strategy Sets Winners Apart – Investors want to see early playbooks for distribution, not just product innovation. GTM clarity is now as critical as model performance.
Red Flags to Avoid – Pitching with no moat, chasing hype, or relying entirely on third-party APIs without differentiation will stop fundraising momentum cold.
Series A Is a Graduation – Moving from seed to A is about proving repeatability, durability, and clear paths to market leadership.

1. Astasia Myers: https://x.com/AstasiaMyers

2. Tony Wang: https://x.com/TonyW

3. Patrick Salyer: https://x.com/patricksalyer

4. Molly O’Shea: ⁠https://x.com/MollySOShea⁠

5. Sourcery: ⁠https://x.com/sourceryvc⁠

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Chapters:

(00:00) Investor backgrounds

(01:39) Astasia on AI voice models

(04:02) ROI of voice-native apps

(05:02) Patrick on AI agents & TAMs

(07:27) Tony on MCP & voice agents

(09:15) Growth expectations from Seed → A

(11:15) Conversion rates & red flags

(13:29) Patrick on stage shifts & round compression

(15:36) Tony on hypergrowth traps