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#50 Ta(l)king Risks & Embracing Uncertainty, with David Spiegelhalter

Learning Bayesian Statistics

CHAPTER

The Probability of Getting Cancer Doesn't Exist

I don't know, of getting liver cancer doesn't exist. The crucial thing is that there is no number out there. And every judgment, every number i assessed, and every magnitude i assess, for this is a judgment based on conditional, on my current knowledge. So let's take, you kno, the chance i get aliver cancer, and maybe i've got it already, is the first thing. So in that sense, there's a lot of epistemic uncertainty about that. What does this number mean? I could look at men my age and how many go on to get deliver cancer. And then i could endlessly refine the group of people i was in and end up

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