Inflation, Federal Reserve, and Yield Curve Prediction

Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, discusses his macro view of the economy and markets.

He believes that the market is ahead of the Fed and that inflation will not come down as quickly as people think due to demographic factors. Bassman also discusses the yield curve and its implications for a recession.

He recommends investing in mortgage-backed securities due to their attractive risk-return profile.

Finally, Bassman, the "Convexity Maven," explains convexity and its importance in bond investing.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/convexitymaven

Convexity Maven: https://www.convexitymaven.com/

Simplify Asset Management: https://www.simplify.us/

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and macro view

03:03 Inflation and Fed Policy

05:01 Inflation expectations

07:26 Yield Curve and recession

10:06 Trade Opportunities in bonds

14:47 Mortgage-Backed Securities and convexity

19:55 Rate expectations and mortgage bond trade

20:15 Understanding convexity

25:55 Wrap up