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Adapting Episode 2: Sequoia’s Black Swan Memo (with Roelof Botha)
Acquired
The Black Swan Virus
I think we saw how team in China immediately had to go into a full lockdown, just sort of a dramatic change at a national level with over a billion people. So clearly the people at the front lines had seen that this was a virus, unlike others, that were spreading a lot faster and had higher mortality rate than a typical seasonal flu. And I think it was pretty obvious that by then there were cases showing up in the US,. Even though there was a travel ban at one point, it was just too porous. People could have come here from mainland China, they could have gone to other parts of the world and coming into the US. It was quite likely that there's a bigger
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