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Ep 168 | How To Beat The Experts And Get It Right Every Time!
Rabbi Daniel Lapin
Isn't It Time to Be an Expert?
Professor philip tetlock studied the predictions made by 204 experts for 20 years. The total number of predictions he studied 82 thousand, 361. How many of them came true? Well, so few that he says, had he had monkeys throwing darts at yes, no answers, he would have got a better responso. In other words, statistically, random would have given better results than these experts. They were overwhelmingly wrong. But people love experts. So i am very persuaded i am completely persuaded already that e yo expert is meaningless.
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