The Fed's Tightening of Credit Contraction

I think that there's going to be more bank stress. The Fed basically has bought itself 50 basis points of tightening at the minimum in my view as a function of the banking turmoil. And I think it's also entirely possible that the Fed is overtightened by 200 basis points compared to what is consistent with financial stability. Without question, I think the probability of a recession is higher.