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Is There a Difference Between Experts and Forecasters?
Most people who claim to be experts are incentivised to exude certainty, and they often get a lot wrong. Expert forecasters hold on to the certainties because they're holding on to them. Human beings are hard wired do not understand big numbers. We live with this sort of effective illusion of immortality where we assume that if things are going well to day, they will go well to morrow.