Is There a Link Between Smoking and Breast Cancer?

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The more data we have, the worse or statistical knowledge of the world is going to be. It's a very unintuitive idea. Once you have a theory in your head, you'e gon just look for confirmation yes. So this is ta problem of th confirmationb let me give ou a example why it is biological. I found a paper written in 19 60 something by buner and potter. Seminal paper for me, but of course, not very noticed. Where if i showed you the picture of a dog, ok, a very blurred picture of adog, ok, you would not, you wouldn't see a dog,ok, is blurred er. All right

Nassim Taleb talks about the challenges of coping with uncertainty, predicting events, and understanding history. This wide-ranging conversation looks at investment, health, history and other areas where data play a key role. Taleb, the author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, imagines two countries, Mediocristan and Extremistan where the ability to understand the past and predict the future is radically different. Taleb's contention is that we often bring our intuition from Mediocristan for the events of Extremistan, leading us to error. The result is a tendency to be blind-sided by the unexpected.