Can We Quantify Security's Trade Effect?

In Episode 441 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, about the profound transformations underway in the global economy driven by America's transition away from being the world's primary insurance provider for international security to its exploiter-in-chief.

In a recently published Foreign Affairs essay titled "The New Economic Geography: Who Profits in a Post-American World?" Adam compares America's role in the post-World War II era to that of an insurance provider, underwriting global security by protecting international shipping lanes, providing deep and liquid capital markets, and enforcing international laws and standards that have formed the bedrock of the last 80 years of economic growth and prosperity.

Kofinas and Posen spend the first hour of this episode digging into Adam's insurance framework and why he believes the United States was the largest beneficiary of the system it created. They discuss some of the recent policy changes out of Washington and why they are transforming America's sphere of influence into something that looks more like a system of exploitation than a market for affordable insurance.

Adam Posen draws implications for the continued role of US Treasuries as a global safe asset and whether a reduction of foreign capital flows into dollars will ultimately prove stimulative for the resurrection of industrial ecosystems that the administration has identified as vital to American national security and the long-term prosperity of the United States. The two also consider the degree to which the increased premiums that Washington is now charging its allies can be justified by rising risks in the international security environment and by the unpopularity among the MAGA base for foreign U.S. involvement.

The second hour of their conversation turns to questions of execution—specifically, what is required for the successful implementation of a U.S. industrial policy. This includes a discussion about apprenticeships, skilled immigration, government-supported R&D, federal funding for university science and technology programs, and more integration and collaboration with allied economies.

Posen and Kofinas also discuss why the use of tariffs, subsidies, and export controls—including the CHIPS and Science Act—implemented during both Joe Biden's and Donald Trump's administrations have underdelivered. They also examine why the current administration's trade policies have been oddly more accommodative toward China than toward America's closest allies and why this will ultimately prove to be a losing strategy in the long-term.

Lastly, Demetri asks Adam for his view on what the recent battles between the Fed and the White House mean for the future of Fed independence and if Washington is laying the groundwork for a long-term rise in inflation expectations as it seeks to monetize its debt and deficits through an increasingly compliant and captured central bank.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 09/16/2025