Navigating the AI Opportunity Landscape

Brian Balfour is the founder of Reforge, the former VP of Growth at HubSpot, and a student (and teacher) of product growth. Brian has studied every major platform shift—from Facebook to Apple to Google—and he’s spotted a pattern that’s about to repeat with ChatGPT.

In this conversation, you’ll learn:

1. The 4-step cycle every platform follows (and why ChatGPT just entered step 2)

2. Why ChatGPT’s platform launch could be bigger than Facebook’s early platform

3. The exact signals that ChatGPT will launch a third-party platform within six months

4. Why you have six months (not years) to make your platform bet

5. Why companies that don’t integrate with ChatGPT will lose to competitors that do

6. How Zynga grew to $1B by betting on Facebook’s platform early (before it was obvious)

7. Why so few companies are actually doing what they need to be doing right now

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Transcript: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/why-chatgpt-will-be-the-next-big-growth-channel-brian-balfour

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My biggest takeaways (for paid newsletter subscribers): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/i/170294620/my-biggest-takeaways-from-this-conversation

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Where to find Brian Balfour:

• X: https://twitter.com/bbalfour

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bbalfour/

• Website: https://brianbalfour.com/

• Substack: https://blog.brianbalfour.com/

• Podcast: https://www.reforge.com/podcast/unsolicited-feedback

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Where to find Lenny:

• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com

• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/

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In this episode, we cover:

(00:00) Welcome back, Brian!

(04:13) The changing landscape of product growth

(05:09) The importance of distribution

(08:14) The role of new distribution platforms

(09:45) The four-step cycle of distribution platforms

(17:38) Examples of platform cycles

(30:01) The rise of ChatGPT

(44:47) The future of AI agents

(46:01) Preferred partners and platform credibility

(47:18) Monetization mechanisms and free tiers

(48:14) Betting strategies for startups

(01:04:34) Adopting AI tools: challenges and strategies

(01:08:41) The importance of hard constraints

(01:14:23) Effective AI adoption in companies

(01:19:05) Lightning round and final thoughts

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Referenced:

• The Next Great Distribution Shift: https://blog.brianbalfour.com/p/the-next-great-distribution-shift

• Brian Balfour: 10 lessons on career, growth, and life: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/brian-balfour-10-lessons-on-career

• This Week #9: Breaking into growth, leading with influence, and (not) stepping on toes: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/this-week-9-breaking-into-growth

• Distribution vs. Innovation: https://a16z.com/distribution-vs-innovation/

• On Platform Shifts and AI: https://caseyaccidental.com/on-platform-shifts-and-ai/

• How to sell your ideas and rise within your company | Casey Winters, Eventbrite: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-to-sell-your-ideas-and-rise-within

• Thinking beyond frameworks | Casey Winters (Pinterest, Eventbrite, Airbnb, Tinder, Canva, Reddit, Grubhub): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/thinking-beyond-frameworks-casey

• ChatGPT: https://chatgpt.com/

• Claude: https://claude.ai/

• Gemini: https://gemini.google.com/

• Vine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vine_(service)

• Periscope: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Periscope_(service)

• Myspace: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myspace

• Friendster: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendster

• AltaVista: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AltaVista

• Lycos: https://www.lycos.com/

• HubSpot: https://www.hubspot.com/

• Zynga: https://www.zynga.com/

• TBPN: https://www.tbpn.com/

• Deedy Das on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/debarghyadas/

• ChatGPT’s product retention curves are a product manager's wet dream: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/debarghyadas_chatgpts-product-retention-curves-are-a-activity-7338384752393035776-ice1/

• Windsurf: https://windsurf.com/

• Building a magical AI code editor used by over 1 million developers in four months: The untold story of Windsurf | Varun Mohan (co-founder and CEO): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/the-untold-story-of-windsurf-varun-mohan

• Anthropic’s CPO on what comes next | Mike Krieger (co-founder of Instagram): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/anthropics-cpo-heres-what-comes-next

• Udemy: https://www.udemy.com/

• Cursor: https://cursor.com/

• The rise of Cursor: The $300M ARR AI tool that engineers can’t stop using | Michael Truell (co-founder and CEO): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/the-rise-of-cursor-michael-truell

• Notion: https://www.notion.com/

• Airtable: https://www.airtable.com/

• Monday: monday.com

• Sierra: http://sierra.ai

• He saved OpenAI, invented the “Like” button, and built Google Maps: Bret Taylor on the future of careers, coding, agents, and more: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/he-saved-openai-bret-taylor

• Introducing ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action: https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-agent/

• Zigging vs. zagging: How HubSpot built a $30B company | Dharmesh Shah (co-founder/CTO): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/lessons-from-30-years-of-building

• Marc Andreessen on Why Optimism Is the Safest Bet: https://nymag.com/marc-andressen-2014-10-20/

• Reforge: https://www.reforge.com

• Reforge Insights: https://www.reforge.com/insights

• Shopify: https://www.shopify.com/

• 25 proven tactics to accelerate AI adoption at your company: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/25-proven-tactics-to-accelerate-ai

• Clouded Judgement: https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/

• NFX: https://www.nfx.com/news

• James Currier: https://www.nfx.com/team/james-currier

• Hallway Chat: https://www.hallwaychat.co/

• Bryan Johnson on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bryanrjohnson/

• Silicon Valley on HBO: https://www.hbomax.com/shows/silicon-valley/b4583939-e39f-4b5c-822d-5b6cc186172d

• Stick: https://tv.apple.com/us/show/stick/umc.cmc.52w04zy67tiv11p8xvbc57wmc

• Ergonofis standing desks: https://ergonofis.com/en-us/collections/standing-desks

• Coping with the loss of a child and protecting your time | Brian Balfour (father of 2, CEO and founder Reforge, venture partner): https://www.startupdadpod.com/coping-with-the-loss-of-a-child-and-protecting-your-time-brian-balfour-father-of-2-ceo-and-found/

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Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.