2min chapter

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#27 - Dr Tom Inglesby on careers and policies that reduce global catastrophic biological risks

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

How to Predict the Annual Probability of a Pandemic

When we can do quantitative calculations, when we can think through in a numeric way what impact something would make, we would or we do. And make judgments that way, but in terms of the very specific probabilities, it's difficult to do. So it's often more judgment about about what we think will make the most difference. The situation's constantly changing, so you can never really anticipate the annual probability going forward. That is one of the problems that things are, that things are changing and especially when you introduce the element of deliberate misuse about technology.

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