Alan Dunne welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal in this episode to delve into the Chinese economic outlook and discuss the broader macro trends. Louis shares his thoughts on whether the Chinese economy and Chinese asset markets are truly at a turning point. They examine the crisis of confidence among Chinese consumers and assess whether recent stimulus measures can help. China’s active industrial policy and desire to grow its share of global manufacturing has been a key policy pillar and Louis examines how sustainable the policy is. The conversation also covers US policy, the prospects for a recession, and how the upcoming US election—particularly a potential Trump victory—could be highly significant for US- China relations and impact bond markets and the US dollar. Louis also gives his take on the structural challenges facing France and Europe, and whether we can expect a recovery in productivity.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:27 - Introduction to Louis Gave
03:50 - Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point?
09:20 - Can China restore their foreign capital flow?
13:40 - The state of Chinese fiscal policy
19:12 - A flash point in Chinese overcapacity
24:14 - A commodity catalyst - reflation incoming?
28:46 - Will the U.S experience a recession soon?
36:48 - A fiscal crisis in the U.S?
40:32 - The economic challenges that France faces
43:09 - The state of the European economy
47:20 - Welfare states are falling apart
49:48 - The U.S. election - how will it impact investors?
54:00 - How Trump would handle the current global conflicts
56:59 - Trump interfering with the Fed
59:26 - A weak dollar = pressure on bonds?
01:00:05 - Still bullish on emerging markets?
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