This episode is a mashup of two polar opposite views on the ongoing US-Iran negotiations (🔮 46% odds of a US-Iran deal this year).

Sina Toossi, an Iran expert at the Center for International Policy, thinks the market is underrating chances for a breakthrough this year. Next, Ambassador John Bolton, a perma-hawk who served as National security Advisor in Trump’s first term, is optimistic about a quick and cheap military option carried out by Israel or the US (🔮 24% odds of an Israeli strike on Iran before July).

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