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Mantic Monday 7/11/22

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

00:00

Will Trump Win the 20 24 G O P Nomination?

Predictits estimate of trump's chance winning the 20 24 g o p nomination is higher than ever. Even small revelations about his intentions move the market a lot. There is inexplicably no predicted market on weather trump will run, but the relevant metaculous question is at 82 % and didn't rise much with the new york times article. Maybe we can identify teams of superstale forecasters, forecast stars, and make them available for people who need their services. They would accept swift center veterans for truth.

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