How do you determine the difference between a one % type company and a company whose valuation is completely off the rails? We looked at historical diffusion models to see how. we can triangulate these different techniques to get a sense of it. There are certain businesses that have a option value right, which is an option is the right, but not the obligation, to do that. And if there are market leaders in uncertain markets with smart management teams and access to capital, they may be able to see opportunities as they present themselves.
Michael Mauboussin is an adjunct professor of finance at the Columbia Business School and the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Bill Mann interviewed Mauboussin in front of a live audience about a range of investing topics, including:
- The approach of "expectations investing" and how to apply it
- Why a company's base case for growth is so important
- Peloton’s faulty growth predictions
- Businesses with real option value
Companies mentioned: SBUX, PTON, AMZN, GOOG, GOOGL, WMT, TGT
Host: Bill Mann
Guest: Michael Mauboussin
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks
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