The Hawk Moth Effect and the Butterfly Effect

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The butterfly effect is the idea that things can be very sensitively dependent on initial conditions. In terms of prediction, it's important, but I think it's less important than a corresponding problem, which is the slight errors in a model. So if you are making a model of what the future will look like and your model is very slightly wrong, you know, to the flap of a butterfly's wings,. Then the differences in the prediction and the real system can propagate forward in same way.

On this episode, Dr. Erica Thompson joins Nate to unpack her recent book Escape From Model Land. Erica explores the pitfalls of conventional science models and the opportunities by which models can augment our imagination and collective understanding. What is a model, and how do our worldviews shape the way they’re made - and conversely, how do they shape our worldviews? How can we rethink and bring creativity into something as scientific as modeling to create maps of the future that are both more accurate and - most importantly - more helpful to planning responses?

About Eric Thompson:

Dr Erica Thompson is a Senior Policy Fellow at the LSE Data Science Institute, where she works on a broad programme of theoretical and practical research about mathematical models, their use, interpretation and social context. She recently authored Escape From Model Land (Basic Books, 2022) which explores the opportunities and challenges of augmenting our imagination about the future with mathematical tools.

For Show Notes and More visit https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/55-erica-thompson