
Erica Thompson: "Models, The Hawkmoth Effect, and the Future"
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
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The Hawk Moth Effect and the Butterfly Effect
The butterfly effect is the idea that things can be very sensitively dependent on initial conditions. In terms of prediction, it's important, but I think it's less important than a corresponding problem, which is the slight errors in a model. So if you are making a model of what the future will look like and your model is very slightly wrong, you know, to the flap of a butterfly's wings,. Then the differences in the prediction and the real system can propagate forward in same way.
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