Understanding Price Versus Value in Gold Investments

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management and Manager of the Euro Pacific Gold Fund, to discuss the economic and monetary landscape under President Trump’s second term, the implications of tariffs, and the outlook for gold and other commodities. Adrian begins by addressing the potential impact of Trump’s trade policies, particularly tariffs, on inflation and the global financial system. He argues that while tariffs are often seen as inflationary, they can be deflationary by reducing demand for certain goods. However, he warns that a weakening U.S. dollar and a potential loss of its reserve currency status could lead to higher inflation domestically, as dollars previously held abroad return to the U.S. Adrian emphasizes that while the U.S. dollar’s dominance is not immediately threatened, Trump’s policies could accelerate its decline, with significant consequences for the economy.

The conversation then shifts to the U.S. debt market, where Adrian highlights the challenges of financing the growing deficit. He notes that major buyers of U.S. Treasuries, such as China and Japan, are reducing their holdings, and domestic buyers like regional banks and the Federal Reserve are also pulling back. This could lead to higher interest rates and increased pressure on the U.S. economy. Adrian predicts that the Federal Reserve may eventually return to quantitative easing (QE) to support the bond market, which would be bullish for gold. He also discusses the disconnect between gold prices and gold mining stocks, attributing it to the lack of participation from North American investors. However, he believes this is changing as economic conditions shift, with gold stocks offering significant value and expanding margins.

Adrian also touches on other commodities, particularly copper and uranium, which he sees as critical for the global energy transition. He concludes by advising investors to focus on value rather than price, emphasizing that the gold market is still in its early stages of a bull run.

Timestamps:
0:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:22 – Trump & U.S. Trade Policy
00:06:30 – Multi Res. Currency World
00:09:13 – A Bretton Woods Event?
00:13:42 – Cad. Dairy & Tariffs
00:15:57 – U.S. Economic Concerns?
00:22:12 – U.S. Debt Global Outlook
00:34:26 – Fed Rates & Q.E.
00:40:20 – Gold & Market Participants
00:45:28 – Gold Sentiment
00:48:28 – Gold & Geopolitical Risk
00:51:58 – Monetary Response & Gold
00:54:39 – Gold Price & Mining Equities
01:00:29 – GSR, Silver, & Cycles
01:05:02 – Royalty Companies & Value
01:07:30 – Capital & Explorers
01:10:42 – Other Sectors/Countries
01:16:12 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: https://adrianday.com/

Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.