How demographic transition challenges China

"The way that institutions emerge and entrench themselves and become a part of the functioning of an economy and society is because they solve some problems. So they're usually a non-market solution toward solving some problem that the economy, that the market system couldn't necessarily solve. Of course the most prominent example of an institution that solves an. Market problem in the non-market way is a firm, as Ronald Coase, of course very early on, taught us that. When a firm realizes that in some cases when transactions costs are high, you want to internalize things within the firm. That the firm is itself an institution. But these other social political institutions, they also exist to resolve some problem. And once they resolve that problem and they're resolving it adequately, then it becomes really hard to bring about change. So the institution solves a problem. So to be clear, it is better than in the absence of the institution, but it also means that without somehow breaking this institution or having some crisis that leads you to substantially reform the institution, you are going to be stuck at a suboptimal equilibrium." - Jamus Lim, author of "Asian Economies: History, Institutions and Structures"

Fresh out of the studio, Associate Professor Jamus Lim from ESSEC Business School and author of "Asian Economies: History, Institutions and Structures" joined us in a comprehensive exploration of the economic foundations shaping Asia's remarkable rise. Jamus shared his story on how the Asian Financial Crisis sparked his passion for macroeconomics and development. He unpacked the critical yet often overlooked role of geography, history, and institutional frameworks in explaining Asia's immense economic diversity, arguing that abstract economic models fail to capture the real-world complexities driving regional development. Through deep dives into China's demographic transition and export-driven challenges, South Korea's state-led chaebol industrialization model, and Japan's historic shift from deflation to inflation, Jamus demonstrated how colonial legacies and historical persistence continue to shape modern economic structures across the continent. Throughout the conversation, he revealed why China's middle-income trap escape depends on building domestic consumption to absorb its massive manufacturing capacity, explained how institutional solutions that once solved problems can become growth constraints, and argued that understanding Asia's past is essential for navigating its economic future in an increasingly complex global landscape.

Episode Highlights: [00:00] Quote of the Day by Jamus Lim [02:27] Introduction: Jamus Lim, Associate Professor in ESSEC Business School and Author of Asian Economies [04:38] Asian Financial Crisis sparks Jamus' macro economics interest [07:38] Teaching in Asia reveals regional development contrasts [09:10] Middle income trap challenges across Asian economies [10:23] Defining Asia: beyond East Asia stereotypes [15:10] How Geography and History are overlooked in economic discourse [17:26] China's transformation: poverty to economic powerhouse [19:32] Demographic transition challenges across East Asia [22:21] China's manufacturing evolution and export strategy [24:28] Lewis turning point: China's labor transformation [26:11] Housing boom and excess supply challenges [29:10] Hukou system creates unequal access issues [33:30] China shock: WTO entry transforms global manufacturing [38:27] South Korea's state-led industrialization model success [39:10] Zaibatsu to Chaebol: the colonial influence on economic structures [42:00] Heavy chemical industry: successful state intervention in South Korea [44:17] Japan's deflation to inflation transition challenges [46:32] Structural adjustments in Japanese labor markets [48:03] Institutional foundations: solving problems creates persistence [54:04] Academic success vs. real-world policy impact [55:00] Closing

Profile: Jamus Lim, Author of Asian Economies, LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamuslim/

Podcast Information: Bernard Leong hosts and produces the show. The proper credits for the intro and end music are "Energetic Sports Drive." G. Thomas Craig mixed and edited the episode in both video and audio format.

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