Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart to discuss Byrne’s vantage point as writer of The Diff, a tech and finance newsletter. Byrne explains the toxicity of the 30-year mortgage, the dynamics of the finance newsletter ecosystem, how rationalist epistemics can be applied to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from scratch.

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Full transcript here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/writing-history-byrne-hobart/

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Sponsor: This podcast is sponsored by Check, the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

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Links:

• The Diff https://www.thediff.co/

• Capital Gains https://capitalgains.thediff.co/ 

• Pre-order Byrne Hobart’s book Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation https://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bubbles-Stagnation-Byrne-Hobart/dp/1953953476 

• Bits About Money https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/

• Byrne's podcast The Riff: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1716646486

Referenced:

• The Railway Mania of 1860 Paper by Andrew Odlyzko https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4006745 

• Seeing Like a State by James C. Scott https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Like-State-Certain-Condition/dp/0300078153

• The Dead Pledge by Judge Earl Glock https://www.amazon.com/Dead-Pledge-Mortgage-1913-1939-Capitalism/dp/0231192533

• The Oral History of Travel’s Greatest Acquisition Bookings.com https://skift.com/oral-history-of-booking-acquisition/

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Twitter:

@patio11

@byrnehobart

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:25) The 30-year mortgage is an intrinsically toxic product

(04:46) Young households are the socially optimal holders of equities risk

(10:19) The structure of private equity returns

(14:18) Sponsor: Check

(15:32) Meta-analysis of the finance newsletter space

(19:54) Byrne’s aspirations for The Diff

(25:01) The origins of names

(27:19) The epistemics of a hedge fund

(34:26) Venture capital vs hedge funds

(38:13) Understanding scrapers

(41:20) How to learn about an industry from scratch

(45:37) The business of online travel agencies

(49:21) Wrap

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Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.