George Noble: A 20-50% Market Crash Is Coming
Forward Guidance
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The Bond Market Is Consistently Overestimated Inflation
In the post-GFC era, okay, the bond market is consistent over estimated inflation. So if you actually think that inflation will remain in a long-term, two percent or whatever, then that would take the wind out of my sails to a large degree about my bearish view for equities. But I think we're in a brave new world with higher inflation, much more economic volatility, geopolitical risk and it's a much different environment. The multiple is going to go down and stay down because the slower growth, the volatile economic environment with higher interest rates is not conducive to high PEs.
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