Climatic Patterns, Doctrine, and Gameplay

Can you navigate AI disruption without understanding your landscape? Discover how to gain true situational awareness.

The rise of AI has exposed a fundamental problem in how organizations make decisions. Most leaders operate using stories and graphs, not actual maps of their landscape. This leaves them vulnerable to disruption and unable to make informed choices about where to apply new technologies. The result is chaos, waste, and strategic mistakes that could have been avoided.

In this episode, Simon Wardley, creator of Wardley Mapping, explains how to build true situational awareness in your organization. He shares why most business “maps” aren’t really maps at all, how to understand the landscape before making decisions, and what leaders need to know about AI adoption beyond the current hype.

Key topics discussed:

• Why leading with stories instead of maps creates fake CEOs
• The critical difference between graphs and maps in business strategy
• What Wardley mapping is and the three pattern types leaders must understand
• How to identify where human decision-making adds value in your AI adoption
• Why vibe coding is powerful but dangerous without proper code reviews
• Why software development is still a craft, not engineering
• How Jevons Paradox means AI won’t eliminate jobs but expand codebases
• The hidden dangers of AI hallucinations and the need for critical thinking

Timestamps:

• (00:00:00) Trailer & Intro
• (00:02:59) Career Turning Points
• (00:06:45) Importance of Understanding Landscape for Leaders
• (00:10:42) The Problem of Leading with Stories
• (00:12:49) Wardley Maps vs Other Types of Business Maps/Analysis
• (00:17:32) Wardley Map Overview
• (00:23:54) Why Mapping is Not a Common Industry Practice
• (00:26:23) Climatic Patterns, Doctrines, and Gameplay
• (00:30:51) Understanding Disruption by Using a Map
• (00:33:17) Navigating the Recent AI Disruption
• (00:39:37) A Leader’s Guide to Adopting AI
• (00:42:49) Turning Coding From a Craft Into Engineering
• (00:48:05) Simon’s AI & Vibe Coding Experiments
• (00:55:28) The Importance of Critical Thinking for Software Engineers
• (01:03:49) Navigating Career Anxiety Due to AI Fear
• (01:08:56) Tech Lead Wisdom

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Simon Wardley’s Bio
Simon Wardley is a researcher, former CEO, and the creator of Wardley Mapping, a powerful method for visualizing and developing business strategy. His journey began accidentally after a bookseller recommended Sun Tzu’s The Art of War, which sparked a fascination with understanding the competitive “landscape.”

As the former CEO of an online photo service acquired by Canon, he felt like a “fake CEO,” leading with stories while lacking true situational awareness. This led him to discover that almost all business “maps” were merely graphs, prompting him to develop his own mapping technique. Today, his work is used by organizations like NASA and taught at multiple MBA programs, helping leaders to “look before they leap” and navigate complex technological and market shifts, including the current disruption caused by AI.

Follow Simon:

• LinkedIn – linkedin.com/in/simonwardley
• Twitter – x.com/swardley
• Website – www.swardleymaps.com

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Show notes & transcript: techleadjournal.dev/episodes/235.
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