Tom asks about EFPs; Bob and Vince show how EFP/backwardation patterns reveal physical demand, algorithmic pressure, and London shortages.
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Episode notes
The Silver Roundtable episode focuses on the current state and future prospects of silver, featuring insights from David Morgan, Bob Coleman, Vincent Lanci, and Steve St. Angelo. The discussion begins with the recent designation of silver as a critical mineral by the U.S. and its inclusion in similar lists by other countries, which could potentially impact its supply and demand dynamics. The panelists debated the implications of these designations, with some suggesting it could artificially keep prices up to support domestic mining activities, while others saw it as a strategic move to secure supplies for industrial and technological advancements.
A significant portion of the conversation revolved around the tightness in the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and the potential for a short squeeze in silver. The experts discussed the role of Exchange for Physical (EFP) transactions and how they reflect market sentiment and potential supply issues. They also touch on the increasing industrial demand for silver, particularly from the solar and automotive sectors, and the impact of central bank policies on precious metals.
The panelists also explored the role of silver in the context of global geopolitics, with China’s recent restrictions on silver exports and the potential for other countries to follow suit. They discuss the possibility of central banks and sovereign wealth funds increasing their silver holdings, either directly or through ETFs, which could further drive up prices.
Additionally, the conversation delved into the differences between investing in silver ETFs and silver mining stocks, highlighting the risks and benefits of each. The experts also shared their thoughts on the future of silver, with some predicting a significant price increase over the next few years due to growing demand and potential supply constraints.
