Introduction

Every day we want to know why what is happening around us is happening. What is a good explanation? We may be at the supermarket and now for three weeks in a row the price of milk has increased. If each week the local sports club sells 1000 raffle tickets for a top prize of $500 and each week the club manager wins the prize it's no comfort to anyone at all. To rule out whether somebody might have a vendetta against the manager wanting to make him look bad so when video surveillance footage of the assistant manager disposing of the ticket sold into a rubbish bin are shown, only viable explanation left accounting for all the parts of the problem we had before is that the assistant