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10/12/2022: MLB, CFB, NFL, Poe, Dennehy & Naughton

Wharton Moneyball

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How to Update a Model That Recaptures the Era of the Season

You've got to find a way that your model is airing, you know, in a way that's calibrated for historical errors. You want to basically make sure that your sim is making mistakes in the same direction and at the same magnitude that historically you've made. And I mean, again, through the through poster updating the Bayesian kind of formulation gives you kind of a sort of automated guidance and how to and how to do that.

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