How Economic Perception Shapes Elections

On today’s ToddCast, Chuck Todd breaks down Donald Trump’s sudden decision to fully engage on the economy—and why his proposals reveal both political vulnerability and economic incoherence. From promising $2.6 trillion in tariff revenue when only a fraction has ever been collected, to floating the idea of replacing income taxes with wildly regressive consumption taxes that would spike prices severalfold, Trump appears more focused on short-term optics than long-term consequences. Chuck also digs into Congress’ scramble to extend ACA subsidies—an issue so politically toxic for Republicans that even Trump may be forced to back the plan—and how the 2026 economic mood will shape the midterms. Plus, he examines the rise of Democratic “fighters” like Jasmine Crockett, the visibility boost for Gavin Newsom and Mark Kelly after their clashes with Trump, and why a politics obsessed with combat over substance leaves both parties drifting away from meaningful policy debates.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and give his ToddCast Top 5 non-playoff college bowl games that should be played NEXT season.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Donald Trump finally engaging on the economy

01:30 Trump doesn’t accept the premise that the economy isn’t great

02:30 Trump blames Biden for all negative economic news

03:15 Majority of voters blame Trump for the bad economy

04:30 Trump proposes spending $2.6T in tariff revenue, only collected $250B

05:00 If Trump replaces income tax with tariffs, prices will go up 2–5x

05:45 Replacing income tax with consumption tax is incredibly regressive

07:00 Trump proposes farm bailout and cutting checks to taxpayers

08:00 Trump knows the economy is bad and wants to throw money at problem

08:45 The perception of economy in summer ‘26 will be perception for midterms

10:45 Trump worries short term, willing to push all problems off to his successor

11:30 Congress looking to extend ACA subsidies for ACA by two years

12:15 Healthcare is such a bad issue for GOP they are looking for off-ramp

13:30 Trump will have to endorse ACA subsidy extension for it to pass

14:30 Bill will likely have to pass the senate before the house

15:30 Gavin Newsom & Mark Kelly’s fight with Trump boosted their visibility

18:30 Mark Kelly’s bio has more charisma than he does

21:00 Hegseth threatening Kelly gave Kelly some juice

21:30 Jasmine Crockett announces run for senate, is very savvy candidate

22:15 Crockett’s announcement video is grounded in fight with Trump

23:00 The fastest way to get traction is Democratic politics is to be a fighter

24:00 Being a fighter helps centrists avoid the progressive litmus test*

25:15 Republicans don’t run on policy ideas, they run on “owning the libs”

26:15 If you only run on fighting, you don’t stand for anything

27:30 Major policy debates become more about the fight and lose substance

29:15 There will be “issue” candidates for Democrats, but they likely won’t do well

29:45 Crockett vs Talarico will be “fight vs unite”

30:45 Nancy Mace writes op-ed saying Dems ram through their agenda

31:30 Dems also think Republicans ram through their agenda

32:30 GOP willing to take hard votes to fulfill promises, Dems less so

38:15 Ask Chuck

38:30 Will Trump’s policy tank support with latinos & put FL & TX in play?

44:00 Will you and Cillizza have a bet on the A&M vs Miami game?

46:00 Thoughts on electing the Attorney General independently?

52:45 Does Bernie Moreno’s bill ending dual citizenship pass legal muster?

55:30 ToddCast Top 5 bowl games that would be better played next season

56:30 Multiple schools have bowed out of playing non playoff bowl games

1:01:15 #1 Citrus Bowl - Texas vs. Michigan

1:02:00 #2 Pop Tarts Bowl - BYU vs. Notre Dame

1:02:45 #3 Pinstripe Bowl - Penn State vs. Clemson

1:03:30 #4 Sun Bowl - Arizona vs. Duke

1:04:00 #5 Hawaii Bowl - Cal vs. Hawaii

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