There's a continuum, and each field is operating in a different point within that continuum. I don't think that someone would do a round trial. They're going to share something, trust me. So these needles are few, and most of what we're going to be detected is likely to be false positive unless we find ways to further document that what we have found is really true.
John Ioannidis of Stanford University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his research on the reliability of published research findings. They discuss Ioannidis's recent study on bias in economics research, meta-analysis, the challenge of small sample analysis, and the reliability of statistical significance as a measure of success in empirical research.