Clarifying and predicting AGI by Richard Ngo
The Inside View
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The Future of Artificial General Intelligence
The TAGI framework helps us better understand the progression of artificial general intelligence, or AGI. A system is considered TAGI if on most cognitive tasks, it beats most human experts who are given time T to perform the task. In Richard Knows' view, existing systems are one second AGIs, close to one minute AGIs, and a couple of years away from one hour AGIs. How can we use these frameworks to make predictions about when we would get a superintelligence?
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