Is There a Crisis in the Middle East?

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/grading-my-2018-predictions-for-2023

To celebrate the fifth anniversary of my old blog, in 2018, I made some predictions about what the next five years would be like.

This was a different experience than my other predictions. Predicting five years out doesn't feel five times harder than predicting one year out. It feels fifty times harder. Not a lot of genuinely new trends can surface in one year; you're limited to a few basic questions on how the current plotlines will end. But five years feels like you're really predicting "the future". Things felt so fuzzy that I (partly) abandoned my usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for total guesses.