Trump, the 2020 Price War and Saving Shale

Helima Croft, one of Wall Street’s most influential energy strategists and Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, unpacks the new geopolitics of energy in a world reshaped by wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, OPEC+ policy shifts, and the increasing but volatile drive toward decarbonisation. 

Helima, who began her career as a CIA analyst, explains how energy is once again a tool of statecraft. She discusses why the US and its adversaries are rethinking energy security, comparing the US approach of relying heavily on oil and gas to that of China, who are embracing all energy sources. She also reflects on conversations with senior Trump administration officials who think the scale of oil stockpiling pursued by China suggests they are preparing for potential conflict with the US.

On Venezuela, Helima explains why the Trump administration’s moves are more geopolitical – wanting to remove Chinese and Russian influence – rather than economic, with the task of boosting Venezuelan oil production an incredibly capital-intensive one. 

Helima also explains what she thinks energy markets are missing when it comes to a potential peace deal in Ukraine, and the importance of whether the Iranian regime responds aggressively to any potential US action, or in a muted fashion like last summer.

Geopolitics aside, Helima thinks President Trump’s entire economic policy is based on lower energy prices, which could pose problems for US shale producers in the years ahead. Her razor sharp insight is an essential listen for anyone keen to understand better the current and future shape of the global energy market. 

You can watch the full video on The Master Investor Podcast YouTube channel

And follow @WilfredFrost on X and Linked In

Sponsored by BNY Investments, Interactive Brokers - ibkr.com/masterinvestor and London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). 

The Master Investor Podcast is produced by Paradine Productions, Master Investor Ltd in association with Bird Lime Media.

This podcast is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in any investment activity. It is not a financial promotion as defined under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). The views expressed by the presenter of this podcast are those of the presenter and are provided in the course of journalism. This podcast benefits from the exemption under Article 20 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO), It does not require approval by a person authorised under the FSMA. Generic information, not identifying any specific investment, fund, provider or service, about a class of investments such as shares, bonds, derivatives and cryptoassets, might be provided and/or discussed during this podcast. Such discussion falls within the generic promotions exemption (Article 17 of the FPO). Such discussion is not a financial promotion requiring approval by an authorised person under section 21 of the FSMA. Investing involves risk. You should consult a suitably qualified adviser who can assess your individual circumstances before making any investment decision.