The Illusion of Knowledge
The Memo by Howard Marks
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Is Inflation Piqued?
No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future. The output from a model may point in the right direction much of the time when the assumptions aren't violated but it can't always be accurate, especially at critical moments such as inflection points. And that's when accurate predictions would be most valuable the inputs.
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