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Asteroid Collision Leading to Mass Extinction
An asteroid collision leading to a potential mass extinction, or at least an extinction of complex beings such as ourselves that require quite special conditions unlike cockroaches and amoebas. One of these civilization changing asteroids is only one kilometer or so in diameter and bigger. It's hard to predict the trajectory with sufficient accuracy to know that it will hit. You certainly don't want to deflect a comet that would have missed, but you thought it was going to hit and end up having it hit. That would be like the ultimate Charlie Brown,. instead of trying to be the hero, right, he ended up being the goat.