838: Cutbacks, Consolidation & Energy Chaos: Will Solar and Batteries Survive 2025? With Barry Cinnamon
SunCast
Intro
This chapter examines the solar industry's landscape leading up to 2025, addressing issues like market slowdowns and layoffs. It emphasizes the importance of strategic partnerships and the potential for solar installers to diversify amidst competition with the oil and gas sector.
Is This The Reality Check We All Needed?
Layoffs. Shrinking margins. Policy gut punched. If you’ve been wondering how the solar industry will make it through this, hang tight - I’ve got a 20+ yr veteran who’s seen enough dips & turns on the SolarCoaster to provide ample insight.
Barry Cinnamon returns to SunCast for a brutally honest conversation with Nico Johnson about what’s unraveling in the solar and storage space—and what smart companies are doing to stay ahead.
From Capitol Hill chaos to customer acquisition woes, this conversation covers the unfiltered landscape of 2025’s solar rollercoaster. If you’re feeling the pressure to pivot, cut back, or just survive, you’re not alone.
Expect to learn:
🔹 Which financing models are collapsing—and who might survive
🔹 Survival tips from companies investing in HVAC, roofing, and service
🔹 Where companies are cutting fat and doubling down
🔹 Why marketing is often first to go—and why that’s a mistake
This isn’t about doom and gloom—it’s about adaptation. And as Barry reminds us, clean energy is inevitable. But only the nimble will thrive in the next 12 months.
While much of the policy discussion in this episode turned out to be accurate, this conversation is meant to provide a broader perspective on the direction of the solar and battery storage industries.
To fact-check or dive deeper, we’ve provided a quick breakdown below of all the key policies and bills mentioned, along with their current status as of mid-2025:
📌 Policy & Bill Breakdown:
⚫ 25D (Residential Tax Credit)
✅ Still active. Remains at 30% through 2032 under the IRA, despite political pressure to shorten it.
⚫ 48E (Clean Electricity Investment Credit)
✅ In effect. Applies to commercial & utility-scale projects. Implementation delays caused confusion, but credit is live.
⚫ FIAC (Foreign Entity of Concern Rule)
⚠ Active and restrictive. Disqualifies projects with Chinese-linked components from IRA tax credits, disrupting supply chains.
⚫Net Metering & AB 942 (California)
❌ AB 942 not passed. Grandfathering still applies when homes are sold, though future legislation could change this.
⚫Community Solar in California
⚠ Still limited. Despite legislation (e.g. AB 2316), utility resistance continues to stall interconnection and access.
⚫ Safe Harbor / 5% Construction Rule
✅ Still usable. Developers can qualify projects for IRA incentives by spending 5% before year-end.
⚫ Domestic Manufacturing & Transformer Bottlenecks
⚠ Ongoing issue. Major delays and cost pressure remain due to limited domestic supply, especially for transformers.
If you want to connect with today's guest, you’ll find links to his contact info in the show notes on the blog at https://mysuncast.com/suncast-episodes/.
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