I lean to pessimism, in part because of the attack that happened this week end. I think the war is going to probably go on for months and possibly into next year. And therefore the russians will have an incentive to try and continue to strangle ukraine's exports. What would stop them is the opprobrium from the world. So i would still give it a 30 or forty per cent chance of holding. But i don't think we should be very optimistic that this is going to be a lasting agreement.

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