AI-powered
podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
2min chapter
Why All News Seems to Be Good News | Sound Underwriting vs. Position Management
This Week in Intelligent Investing
Market Cycles Just Haven't Been Truncated, Right?
Market cycles just seem to have been truncated and shrunk down so much more, even in just my relatively brief career. If you think back to prior generational disruptions, you know, you wouldn't have had whatever was a hundred and 64 days la char between the fastest ever to climb in market prices. And both fundamentals and demographics and sentiment, they're all combining in weird ways.
00:00
Transcript
Episode notes
Speaker 2
I mean, if somebody asked me to describe my outlook on most things, i think it would normally be that i would i could consider myself and aspire to be, and try to consciously push myself toward being a rational optimist, rigt. I mean, there's no sense in being starry eyed and naive and overly optimistic. But likewise, i don't really ever fall into the trap of the pessimism that tennis cells younow, i think it's a great way to market investment funds and get lots of news clicks and eyeballs just to be overly pessimistic and costantly to cry all the things that are going in the world. So i'm not trying to do that either. But it does kind of stand out to me, right? An mean, market cycles just seem to have been truncated and shrunk down so much more, even in just my relatively brief career. If you think back to prior generational disruptions, you know, you wouldn't have had whatever was an was a hundred and 64 days la char between, you know, the fastest ever to climb in market prices. A were done, 34 %, and heavse to pe 500 and a couple of weeks, and then right back to all timeto highs, a hundred an d 64 days latert something like that. Those numbers might be slightly off, but you don't things like the great depression, or major wars, or just acid bubbles that needed to be popped, those things generally always took a couple of years to play themselves out, right? And there was always kind of this pull and push between a to three year re balancing of the business cycle, an these longer, kind of 15 to 20 year waves. And both fundamentals and demographics and sentiment, they're all combining in weird ways. And thit just seems to have been kind of kind of thrown out the window. I mean, i i read back into history as to what it was like for investors when, you know, the market basically went nowhere from the late sixties to 19 82. Buavemea that kind of stuff. Just trading in these relatively narrow bands for a long period of time. And people have tried to call that environment again. It just hasn't happened. Rit a move, just kind of been on this relentlessly optimistic march, as it comes to as it comes to security prices.
Get the Snipd
podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered
Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any
moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share
& Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered
podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode