Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio following the September FOMC. DiMartino Booth argues the Fed "chose independence over economy" with its 25bp cut, as Waller and Bowman sacrificed potential Fed chair positions by not dissenting for larger cuts. She presents compelling evidence the US has created zero jobs since April in the core private sector and calls a double-dip recession starting Q2 2024. DiMartino Booth's thesis is that "the Fed put is dead" - if the Fed goes to zero bound again, the 40% of stocks owned by 70+ year-olds will be forced to sell, stress-testing passive flows for the first time in history. She advocates reforming the Fed's structure, eliminating the conflicting dual mandate, and warns that unknown leverage in private markets represents the new systemic fault line.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Danielle in studio post-FOMC
0:36 Fed chose independence over economy - 25bp cut reaction
2:32 Waller's non-dissent - sacrificing Fed chair shot for integrity
3:46 US created zero jobs since April in core private sector
5:43 Monetary Metals ad read
6:43 Double dip recession call - started Q2 2024
8:53 Jobs typo in North Carolina data - continuing claims actually rose
11:14 Top 10% now account for 49% of consumption
12:21 Double dip recession explained - historical 1980-81 parallel
14:31 1.4 million full-time jobs lost since January
16:08 CEOs investing in AI to cut workers, not add jobs
17:20 Fed's dual mandate doesn't make sense - inherently conflicting
20:16 The Fed put is dead - new book thesis
23:02 Zero bound means boomers sell stocks - passive never stress tested
27:24 Fed structure needs reform - too many PhDs, need practitioners
29:01 Lehman anniversary - Fed violated law with MBS purchases
31:42 Private markets are new fault line - leverage unknown
32:32 Final thoughts - give peace a chance, listen to each other
