The Lurking Slowdown
Notes on the Week Ahead
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Introduction
Real GDP grew at a very healthy 2.9% annualized pace in the 4th quarter of 2022. This likely overstates momentum and deflects attention from potentially weaker growth next few quarters. Inventories, excluding inventory accumulation, real final sales grew by just 1.4%. We expect real consumer spending to grow only very slowly in the year ahead. Home building will likely continue to fall, at least in the first half of 2023.
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