The Gray Area with Sean Illing cover image

Julia Galef on how to argue better and change your mind more

The Gray Area with Sean Illing

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Is There a Difference Between Accurate and Inedited Guesses?

In business, accurate almost means did I make more money. In politics it's hard to say if you know looking at any one case in isolation because even if you were perfectly calibrated with that 80% prediction is still 20% of the time. But we shouldn't expect that there's a huge difference between the kinds of educated guesses the way that we're making educated guesses in near term problems like business decision making and then the way they don't get as much concrete feedback on.

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