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TIP559: Mastering the Market Cycle by Howard Marks
We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network
The Limits of Negativism
When times were good from 2005 to 2007, there was a high degree of confidence. But when fear struck in the markets, it quickly eroded all confidence and excessive risk aversion took the place of unrealistic risk tolerance. Oak Tree believed that they were well positioned to never have to worry about a margin call as long as these prices didn't fall to 88 cents on the dollar. After the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, loan prices fell to unprecedented levels. The crisis still managed to almost bring down their fund.
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