E61 - Sports Betting
Business of Betting Podcast
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How to Calculate the Edge of an NFL Game
I think the average better even ones who are inclined to build models and look at stuff analytically fail to look at really just the true raw probability of events occurring. One thing I do that's alarmingly unique is instead of just coming up with a number without anything attached to it for what this spread should be for every single NFL game my model creates a probability distribution of the margin scoring like winning margin of the game. So whatever the mean of that distribution is is the projected spread but more importantly there's a variance associated with that distribution.
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