IRGC Power and Coup Possibility

1. Role of Popular Uprising

• Millions of Iranians are described as actively protesting against the ruling clerical regime.
• The movement is portrayed as organic, domestic, and secular, not Islamist or anti‑Western.
• Economic collapse is identified as the primary catalyst rather than a single political trigger.
• Protesters are framed as the legitimate engine of change, with the U.S. positioned as a supporter rather than the instigator.

2. Economic Collapse as a Destabilizer

• Hyperinflation and currency collapse (rial exceeding 1,000,000 to the dollar) have crippled daily life.
• Bazaar closures, labor strikes (notably in energy), and widespread shortages are presented as systemic stressors.
• Low global oil prices weaken Iran’s primary revenue source, limiting the regime’s ability to fund repression and foreign proxies.

3. U.S. Policy Contrast: Trump vs. Obama/Biden

• There is a sharp contrast between:
  • Obama/Biden: Characterized as conciliatory, passive, and supportive of engagement (e.g., Iran nuclear deal).
  • Trump: Portrayed as deterrence‑focused, confrontational, and openly supportive of regime change.
• Trump’s public endorsement of a “new government” in Iran is framed as unprecedented and strategically consequential.

4. Deterrence Without Occupation

• We reject a large‑scale military invasion.
• Instead, we support:
  • Targeted military strikes (e.g., nuclear facilities, IRGC leadership)
  • Covert operations
  • Clear deterrent threats against mass repression
• The killing of Qasem Soleimani is highlighted as a key inflection point that shattered regime confidence.

5. Iran’s Strategic Weakness

• Iran’s air defenses and regional influence are described as severely degraded.
• Hezbollah, Hamas, and other proxies have been decapitated or weakened.
• The regime is increasingly isolated as allies (Venezuela, Syria, Russia) face their own crises.

6. Internal Regime Fractures

• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is portrayed as a potential kingmaker or coup actor.
• The text suggests the IRGC:
  • Controls vast economic assets
  • Is deeply unpopular with the public
  • May abandon the clerical leadership to preserve its own power
• A coup becomes likely if U.S. pressure and labor strikes converge.

7. Information Control and Fear

• Internet shutdowns and communication blackouts are signs of regime panic.
• Supreme Leader Khamenei fears internal reform more than outright confrontation, drawing parallels to Soviet collapse.

9. Broader Geopolitical Context

• Iran’s situation is linked to potential domino effects in Venezuela and Cuba.
• Energy independence and low oil prices are framed as key U.S. national security tools.
• The moment is compared to the fall of the Berlin Wall, suggesting a possible systemic collapse of authoritarian regimes without U.S. ground wars.

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