Mark Rzepczynski joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation shaped by tension between surface calm and deeper dislocation. From copper’s sudden collapse to signs of stress in liquidity and leverage, they explore how market behavior is increasingly defined by fragility, not fundamentals. With Fed policy boxed in, equity optimism rising, and stablecoins quietly redrawing the contours of the monetary system, the challenge for investors isn’t prediction - it’s positioning. They also confront the limits of complexity in models and why, in uncertain regimes, the discipline of doing less may offer the most resilience. This is trend following in context.
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:15 - What has caught our attention recently?
09:08 - The tough situation of Fed independence
10:43 - Industry performance update
14:27 - Mark's analysis of the current trend following performance
21:01 - Are we picking up long term inflation trends?
23:04 - 2025 has given us something rare
26:05 - The core problem that trend followers face today
36:42 - The evolution of stablecoins
43:52 - The definition of financial bubbles is becoming diluted
53:11 - Risk - a feeling or a factor?
58:42 - The seductiveness of complexity
01:01:10 - Key observations from our conversation
01:07:17 - What is up for next week?
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