Scaling Laws and the Future of LLM Programming

François Chollet discusses the outcomes of the ARC-AGI (Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus) Prize competition in 2024, where accuracy rose from 33% to 55.5% on a private evaluation set.

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Read about the recent result on o3 with ARC here (Chollet knew about it at the time of the interview but wasn't allowed to say):

https://arcprize.org/blog/oai-o3-pub-breakthrough

TOC:

1. Introduction and Opening

[00:00:00] 1.1 Deep Learning vs. Symbolic Reasoning: François’s Long-Standing Hybrid View

[00:00:48] 1.2 “Why Do They Call You a Symbolist?” – Addressing Misconceptions

[00:01:31] 1.3 Defining Reasoning

3. ARC Competition 2024 Results and Evolution

[00:07:26] 3.1 ARC Prize 2024: Reflecting on the Narrative Shift Toward System 2

[00:10:29] 3.2 Comparing Private Leaderboard vs. Public Leaderboard Solutions

[00:13:17] 3.3 Two Winning Approaches: Deep Learning–Guided Program Synthesis and Test-Time Training

4. Transduction vs. Induction in ARC

[00:16:04] 4.1 Test-Time Training, Overfitting Concerns, and Developer-Aware Generalization

[00:19:35] 4.2 Gradient Descent Adaptation vs. Discrete Program Search

5. ARC-2 Development and Future Directions

[00:23:51] 5.1 Ensemble Methods, Benchmark Flaws, and the Need for ARC-2

[00:25:35] 5.2 Human-Level Performance Metrics and Private Test Sets

[00:29:44] 5.3 Task Diversity, Redundancy Issues, and Expanded Evaluation Methodology

6. Program Synthesis Approaches

[00:30:18] 6.1 Induction vs. Transduction

[00:32:11] 6.2 Challenges of Writing Algorithms for Perceptual vs. Algorithmic Tasks

[00:34:23] 6.3 Combining Induction and Transduction

[00:37:05] 6.4 Multi-View Insight and Overfitting Regulation

7. Latent Space and Graph-Based Synthesis

[00:38:17] 7.1 Clément Bonnet’s Latent Program Search Approach

[00:40:10] 7.2 Decoding to Symbolic Form and Local Discrete Search

[00:41:15] 7.3 Graph of Operators vs. Token-by-Token Code Generation

[00:45:50] 7.4 Iterative Program Graph Modifications and Reusable Functions

8. Compute Efficiency and Lifelong Learning

[00:48:05] 8.1 Symbolic Process for Architecture Generation

[00:50:33] 8.2 Logarithmic Relationship of Compute and Accuracy

[00:52:20] 8.3 Learning New Building Blocks for Future Tasks

9. AI Reasoning and Future Development

[00:53:15] 9.1 Consciousness as a Self-Consistency Mechanism in Iterative Reasoning

[00:56:30] 9.2 Reconciling Symbolic and Connectionist Views

[01:00:13] 9.3 System 2 Reasoning - Awareness and Consistency

[01:03:05] 9.4 Novel Problem Solving, Abstraction, and Reusability

10. Program Synthesis and Research Lab

[01:05:53] 10.1 François Leaving Google to Focus on Program Synthesis

[01:09:55] 10.2 Democratizing Programming and Natural Language Instruction

11. Frontier Models and O1 Architecture

[01:14:38] 11.1 Search-Based Chain of Thought vs. Standard Forward Pass

[01:16:55] 11.2 o1’s Natural Language Program Generation and Test-Time Compute Scaling

[01:19:35] 11.3 Logarithmic Gains with Deeper Search

12. ARC Evaluation and Human Intelligence

[01:22:55] 12.1 LLMs as Guessing Machines and Agent Reliability Issues

[01:25:02] 12.2 ARC-2 Human Testing and Correlation with g-Factor

[01:26:16] 12.3 Closing Remarks and Future Directions

SHOWNOTES PDF:

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ujaai0ewpdnsosc5mc30k/CholletNeurips.pdf?rlkey=s68dp432vefpj2z0dp5wmzqz6&st=hazphyx5&dl=0