Exploring the strategies of super forecasters who excel at accurate predictions by breaking down questions, tracking predictions, and adjusting estimates with prior information and reference classes.
We’re talking big moves and Big Oil as earnings season continues.
At (00:21) Jason Hall and Deidre Woollard break down Peloton’s CEO shift and Big Oil’s big profits.
At (16:40) Tom Chivers, author of Everything Is Predictable, explains how the Bayesian theorem underlies much of modern life and investing.
Companies discussed: PTON, SHEL, XOM, COP
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Jason Hall, Tom Chivers
Producer: Ricky Mulvey, Chace Przylepa
Engineers: Dan Boyd
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