How to Predict a Recession in the US

We're in a very odd climate. We haven't had an old-fashioned proper, cynical recession since the 90s. This one could be the closest we come to a kind of a typical business cycle recession. Bond markets are pricing in a recession if you look at the yield curve. The key thing I'm watching is the credit sector. Whether we see more bankruptcies and whether you see high yield spreads begin to rise will give you a proper recession.