The Monotrous Theory - The Only Thing That Matters

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When I got into the business in the early 80s, macroeconomics was the only thing that mattered. Then what happened in our business is macro became a bad thing. We moved into a just study company by company and you can build up what the macros are. It's like going 150 miles an hour, 75 miles zone, and then slamming on the brakes as hard as you can. There's been terrible mistakes both ways.

From The Great Depression and the two World Wars to now COVID and the escalation of the War in Ukraine, the world has had its fair share of economic downturns. However, the way we recover from it seems different now than it was in the early 1900s. Here with us today to discuss the differences and similarities of past, present, and future recessions is Wharton Professor and esteemed economist, Jeremy Siegel. Jeremy shares his thoughts on the Monitor hypothesis, the potential severity of a recession, and how current technological advancements make an increase in productivity highly likely. We learn what the Federal Reserve could be doing better amidst the negative money growth we are currently experiencing before Jeremy gives us his take on digital currencies and why crypto may be a three-part revolution.

“I do think, as I look back, because of my studies with Milton Friedman, that the principal cause of the Great Depression was the failure of the Fed to prevent the total collapse of the banking system.” — Professor Jeremy Siegel Key Points From This Episode:

Welcoming today’s guest, Wharton Professor and decorated economist, Jeremy Siegel.
A look at Jeremy’s professional background.
Jeremy’s thoughts on the Monitor hypothesis.
What Jeremey thinks the severity of the an upcoming recession could be.
How too much labor and inventory could compound a recession.
Why innovation and automation may lead to a big increase in productivity in the near future.
How Jeremy thinks today’s economic climate compares to the Smoot-Hawley act and others.
Whether inflation can drop below zero, mimicking post-disaster periods of old.
What the Federal Reserve could do to bring back money growth.
A closer look at the negative money growth America is currently experiencing.
Why Jeremy believes it’s no longer necessary to squeeze the economy to death to regain parity.
Why increasing productivity should be our top priority.
Whether a productivity rise is inevitable due to ever-changing technological advancements.
Jeremy’s take on digital currencies.
Cryptocurrency as a possible three-part revolution.