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SI238: Why Not to Trend Follow ft. Rob Carver

Top Traders Unplugged

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The Importance of a Volatility Forecast for Position Size

Bruno writes, let me express my gratitude and admiration for your podcast. I would like to ask Rob a question on dynamic position sizing and the need for volatility forecast. One thing that isn't addressed in great detail is the apparent contradiction of using historical volatility as a predictor of future market conditions when defining position size. This is a bit like the critique many people move to var value at risk which is like driving while looking in the rear view mirror. Does Rob advocate using a model of any kind to produce a volatility forecast and let this risk budget fluctuate according to market conditions or does he see more value in having more empirical approach?

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