The Republican party hasn't needed to change in modern American history, he says. Hoover's Republicans were defeated by the New Deal and Roosevelt's New Deal coalition won 33 out of 32 elections. Barry Goldwater's defeat in 1964 was 'massive' but not on same scale as McGovern or Dukakis,'says John Avlon. This society is way too thinly divided, evenly divided', adds Avlon.