All seasons portfolio is extremely conservative, only 30 % in a total stock market fund. The golden ratio has 40% of its value in stocks and 20% in gold. And the levered golden ratio does not have as favorable a run up. Risk parody ultimate contains 14 funds that are in here but you can check it out on the web side if you like. You don't know. Nobody knows. But it is a good test of what happens when you start your retirement and then six months later, things go into the tank a little bit.