4min chapter

The Bayesian Conspiracy cover image

124 – Longevity

The Bayesian Conspiracy

CHAPTER

What Is Our True Life Expectancy?

Aging has a surplus of excellent experimentalists but a shortage of good modeling slash analysis slash theory less wrong in the adjacent community. So this post outlines some problems which could fit that skill set. I expect all of these could be solved to a reasonable degree of certainty with careful modeling and some beyond high school but not revolutionary statistics using already existing data. The median pessimistic year for AGI is 2075. Taking into account technological progress what do we expect life expectancy to be. 76 for everybody. Yeah and then like. 2075 and three days.

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