Davidson On Takeoff Speeds
Astral Codex Ten Podcast
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The Future of AI
A sufficiently new paradigm might allow better results with fewer flops, not just a smaller increase in flops than you would otherwise expect. There could come at any point along the flop progress graph. A sufficiently smart person might be able to come up with it today. Since everything will happen faster than we think, we will want to have plans beforehand. We need clear criteria for when AI labs will halt progress to reassess safety. Sometime in the next few years or decades, someone will create an AI which can perform an appreciable fraction of all human tasks. Millions of copies will be available almost immediately,. Many running it faster than human speed. Unless the AI lab involved delays releasing it
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